50-gene risk profiles in peripheral blood predict COVID-19 outcomes: A retrospective, multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been associated with Interstitial Lung Disease features. The immune transcriptomic overlap between Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) and COVID-19 has not been investigated. METHODS: we analyzed blood transcript levels of 50 genes known to predict IPF mortality in three COVID-19 and two IPF cohorts. The Scoring Algorithm of Molecular Subphenotypes (SAMS) was applied to distinguish high versus low-risk profiles in all cohorts. SAMS cutoffs derived from the COVID-19 Discovery cohort were used to predict intensive care unit (ICU) status, need for mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality in the COVID-19 Validation cohort. A COVID-19 Single-cell RNA-sequencing cohort was used to identify the cellular sources of the 50-gene risk profiles. The same COVID-19 SAMS cutoffs were used to predict mortality in the IPF cohorts. FINDINGS: 50-gene risk profiles discriminated severe from mild COVID-19 in the Discovery cohort (P = 0·015) and predicted ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0·77, 0·75, and 0·74, respectively, P < 0·001) in the COVID-19 Validation cohort. In COVID-19, 50-gene expressing cells with a high-risk profile included monocytes, dendritic cells, and neutrophils, while low-risk profile-expressing cells included CD4+, CD8+ T lymphocytes, IgG producing plasmablasts, B cells, NK, and gamma/delta T cells. Same COVID-19 SAMS cutoffs were also predictive of mortality in the University of Chicago (HR:5·26, 95%CI:1·81-15·27, P = 0·0013) and Imperial College of London (HR:4·31, 95%CI:1·81-10·23, P = 0·0016) IPF cohorts. INTERPRETATION: 50-gene risk profiles in peripheral blood predict COVID-19 and IPF outcomes. The cellular sources of these gene expression changes suggest common innate and adaptive immune responses in both diseases. FUNDING: This work was supported in part by National Institute for Health Research Clinician Scientist Fellowship NIHR: CS-2013-13-017 (TMM); Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis Mike Bray fellowship (PLM); The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) through award K01-HL-130704 (AJ); The University of South Florida (USF) Academic Support Fund and the USF Foundation, Ubben Fibrosis Fund (JHM).

Restoring Pulmonary and Sleep Services as the COVID-19 Pandemic Lessens. From an Association of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Division Directors and American Thoracic Society-coordinated Task Force.

Background: In March 2020, many elective medical services were canceled in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The daily case rate is now declining in many states and there is a need for guidance about the resumption of elective clinical services for patients with lung disease or sleep conditions.Methods: Volunteers were solicited from the Association of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Division Directors and American Thoracic Society. Working groups developed plans by discussion and consensus for resuming elective services in pulmonary and sleep-medicine clinics, pulmonary function testing laboratories, bronchoscopy and procedure suites, polysomnography laboratories, and pulmonary rehabilitation facilities.Results: The community new case rate should be consistently low or have a downward trajectory for at least 14 days before resuming elective clinical services. In addition, institutions should have an operational strategy that consists of patient prioritization, screening, diagnostic testing, physical distancing, infection control, and follow-up surveillance. The goals are to protect patients and staff from exposure to the virus, account for limitations in staff, equipment, and space that are essential for the care of patients with COVID-19, and provide access to care for patients with acute and chronic conditions.Conclusions: Transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a dynamic process and, therefore, it is likely that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community will wax and wane. This will impact an institution's mitigation needs. Operating procedures should be frequently reassessed and modified as needed. The suggestions provided are those of the authors and do not represent official positions of the Association of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Division Directors or the American Thoracic Society.